You might be able to model this by looking at share movement on BitFunder (with regards to the Assets List) over a period of 12 months (if you have access to those backups) and see what percentage was holding vs trading.
Backup of assets list:
https://btct.co/history-bitfunder/I think the share price will go up some when the fund closes, but not a ton. BTC-TC already got their dividend/buyout and I think that is part of why the price skyrocketed so much over there, and that also dragged the Bitfunder price up.
The two exchange system offers a nice arbitrage opportunity. I've increased my holdings by 20% historically through just a few arbitrage trades. Be careful of WeExchange, thoughthey don't pay the minimum transaction fee on withdrawals and they require 6 confirmations on deposits.