ASICMiner products probably exceed 30% of the hashrate share already. But you have to realize this:
ASICMiner valuation = (ASICMiner hashrate share + ASICMiner customer hashrate share) * mining share of bitcoin valuation * bitcoin valuation
I highly doubt all mining makes up 30% of Bitcoin's industry, let alone a part of mining.
I highly doubt money supply = GDP.
They have different units, so I fail to see how they can even be compared.
What I'm comparing is money supply to stock supply. If ASICMiner is valued at greater than all
BTC combined is valued, then it follows that ASICMiner must have revenues separate from Bitcoin. This is not true, so ASICMiner stock will be capped.
Perceived value can't be capped. One share can change hands for price X, ten shares for price Y and all shares for price Z. X probably ain't Z.
The valuation formula doesn't make sense to me. "Bitcoin valuation" seems strange for "ASICMiner valuation", in BTC at least. It's should be only about cashflow. Let's say 33% of hashrate ~ 1200 BTC per day + BTC from hardware sales (at any price) is the cash coming in. After cash expenses, the net cash flow is worth something to retain or acquire, the price of which to be determined by the irrational brains of current and future shareholders. No absolute reasons in there to "have revenues separate from Bitcoin".
How to pay? With debt, gold, property or whatever. No restriction to the amount of BTC in the economy.
Of course not only cashflow influences the perceived value, but also their current control of the mining sector. They seem to be able to choose between selling their hardware or using it themselves. If f.e. 100th comes online, it wouldn't surprise me if ASICMINER turns on 45 TH overnight to keep up their share. While if hashrate from other sources grows to slow, ASICMINER goes helicopter Ben with well-priced hardware.
Cashflow in from mining is more or less constant, cash out for mining increases with difficulty, while hardware will be the other way around. Less cash in with constant costsfor manufacturing. It will take a while, but the extreme profitability of ASICMINER will come to an end when margins become 'normal'. But I don't dare to say anything about the share price that the market will see fit for these stages.