Post
Topic
Board Gambling
Re: FreeBitco.in - Win free Bitcoins every hour!
by
Don Pedro Dinero
on 15/01/2018, 18:36:57 UTC

many players actually increase the house edge by using strategies like the martingale.

Could you expand on this?
I would be curious too to know why a martingale strategy increases house edge.

Because you go back to base bet after each win you end up increasing your average loss in proportion to your win.  You can only ever win the base bet amount but often risk much larger amounts. There are ways to gamble that make winning less likely but none that can give a better expectation than the house edge.

I just spent ages on Google trying to find a decent mathematical example of this and without finding my old maths teacher I can't remember exactly how to demonstrate it myself. This roulette example is the best I could find:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(betting_system)
Quote
In this example, the probability of losing the entire bankroll and being unable to continue the martingale is equal to the probability of 6 consecutive losses: (10/19)6 = 2.1256%. The probability of winning is equal to 1 minus the probability of losing 6 times: 1 − (10/19)6 = 97.8744%.

The expected amount won is (1 × 0.978744) = 0.978744.
The expected amount lost is (63 × 0.021256)= 1.339118.
Thus, the total expected value for each application of the betting system is (0.978744 − 1.339118) = −0.360374 .
...

Pretty much, if you have a balance of 0.05 and try to win 0.0005 in a few dice bets you have a fair chance of coming out a winner. If you try to get 0.0005 up to 0.05 then most times you'll end up busting.
They changed the hi-lo bonus requirements a while back. The "The maximum wagering requirements that you can fulfil in a single bet cannot exceed 10% of the original amount of your bonus account." makes it much harder to come out on top now. But the reward points quickly add up especially on the weekend when it is 4 or 5 points for every 500 satoshis wagered. So you end up with getting past the 100,000 minimum quite quickly with a few big bets.


Thanks, on my part too. I knew martingale is a bad system where you increase your risk exponentially to win just the base bet, but I hadn’t thought about it like that: “you increase the house edge”.

But it doesn’t matter if this keeps being said in all the betting forums, Wikipedia or wherever, people will keep using martingale.

The other point you talk about is quite interesting as well, and in poker and sports betting is widely known as bankroll management. It consists in making small bets, compared to the total money you have in the casino account. Many gamblers would be better off doing bankroll management.