Someone was asking in the chat how it's possible that the site-wide luck is still over 102% after so many bets, and requested a breakdown of luck-per-chance, so here it is:
I'm only showing chances which have had 10k or more bets.
Before generating the list I said it was probably due to vlees and nimda both hitting 0.0001% about twice as quickly as expected, and that does appear to be the reason. 1 million of the total 40 million bets have an average luck of 200% each. Dilute that 40 times over and you get 102.5%. Nice and tidy result.
So the whole site's luck is still affected predominantly by a single lucky roll. If only one of the two of them had hit the 1-in-a-million, as expected, luck would be very close to 100%.
Quote
0.0001% 0.0002 ( 2 / 1014500) 197.14%
0.0010% 0.0000 ( 0 / 27898) 0.00%
0.0100% 0.0195 ( 2 / 10232) 195.47%
0.1000% 0.1046 ( 34 / 32493) 104.64%
0.7920% 0.7897 ( 91 / 11524) 99.70%
0.9900% 1.0450 ( 163 / 15598) 105.56%
1.0000% 1.0128 ( 2918 / 288098) 101.28%
1.5000% 1.7034 ( 177 / 10391) 113.56%
1.6000% 1.6021 ( 267 / 16666) 100.13%
2.0000% 2.1232 ( 1208 / 56894) 106.16%
2.4750% 2.7755 ( 408 / 14700) 112.14%
2.7500% 2.6493 ( 279 / 10531) 96.34%
3.0000% 2.8873 ( 638 / 22097) 96.24%
3.9600% 3.7136 ( 667 / 17961) 93.78%
4.0000% 4.0446 ( 14927 / 369059) 101.12%
4.1250% 4.2604 ( 1414 / 33189) 103.28%
4.5000% 4.6285 ( 1697 / 36664) 102.86%
4.9500% 4.9804 ( 12668 / 254359) 100.61%
5.0000% 5.0414 ( 8957 / 177669) 100.83%
6.1875% 6.1245 ( 2413 / 39399) 98.98%
8.2500% 8.3051 ( 3237 / 38976) 100.67%
8.4126% 8.5661 ( 6225 / 72670) 101.82%
9.0000% 8.9769 ( 11478 / 127862) 99.74%
9.9000% 10.0373 ( 12103 / 120580) 101.39%
10.0000% 9.9937 ( 445492 / 4457711) 99.94%
11.0000% 10.9601 ( 16411 / 149734) 99.64%
12.0000% 12.0225 ( 2672 / 22225) 100.19%
12.2222% 12.2281 ( 3486 / 28508) 100.05%
12.3750% 12.3383 ( 89148 / 722531) 99.70%
14.1400% 14.0661 ( 19502 / 138645) 99.48%
14.1426% 14.2449 ( 1797 / 12615) 100.72%
14.1429% 14.3587 ( 2277 / 15858) 101.53%
15.0000% 14.9378 ( 3217 / 21536) 99.59%
16.0000% 15.9314 ( 1607 / 10087) 99.57%
16.5000% 16.5450 ( 27314 / 165089) 100.27%
17.9900% 17.9268 ( 22655 / 126375) 99.65%
18.9900% 19.0439 ( 4629 / 24307) 100.28%
19.8000% 19.8489 ( 30768 / 155011) 100.25%
20.0000% 20.1069 ( 56303 / 280018) 100.53%
23.0000% 23.1202 ( 2715 / 11743) 100.52%
24.0000% 23.8618 ( 9963 / 41753) 99.42%
24.5000% 24.2011 ( 4150 / 17148) 98.78%
24.7500% 24.8459 ( 18900 / 76069) 100.39%
25.0000% 25.0290 ( 48379 / 193292) 100.12%
26.0000% 25.9508 ( 22176 / 85454) 99.81%
30.0000% 30.0167 ( 70609 / 235232) 100.06%
32.0000% 32.1967 ( 13068 / 40588) 100.61%
33.0000% 33.0236 ( 191353 / 579444) 100.07%
33.3333% 33.3778 ( 80777 / 242008) 100.13%
35.0000% 35.0552 ( 308135 / 878999) 100.16%
39.0000% 38.8207 ( 18658 / 48062) 99.54%
39.6000% 39.5171 ( 37874 / 95842) 99.79%
40.0000% 39.9578 ( 64891 / 162399) 99.89%
41.2500% 41.3686 ( 5737 / 13868) 100.29%
42.0000% 42.2562 ( 29824 / 70579) 100.61%
43.0000% 42.9035 ( 14821 / 34545) 99.78%
44.0000% 44.0615 ( 22604 / 51301) 100.14%
45.0000% 44.9605 ( 173839 / 386648) 99.91%
45.5000% 45.2506 ( 6698 / 14802) 99.45%
46.0000% 45.8192 ( 112094 / 244644) 99.61%
46.3483% 46.1318 ( 30530 / 66180) 99.53%
46.3800% 46.9585 ( 7349 / 15650) 101.25%
46.5000% 45.6302 ( 8834 / 19360) 98.13%
46.5800% 47.1283 ( 5867 / 12449) 101.18%
46.6800% 46.4351 ( 13397 / 28851) 99.48%
46.8000% 47.3237 ( 28708 / 60663) 101.12%
47.0000% 47.2146 ( 31978 / 67729) 100.46%
47.1429% 46.8395 ( 8277 / 17671) 99.36%
47.5000% 47.9066 ( 6751 / 14092) 100.86%
48.0000% 47.8328 ( 64768 / 135405) 99.65%
48.5000% 48.6159 ( 23358 / 48046) 100.24%
48.8100% 48.8479 ( 101417 / 207618) 100.08%
49.0000% 49.0585 ( 257060 / 523987) 100.12%
49.2000% 49.2900 ( 5415 / 10986) 100.18%
49.5000% 49.4826 (7148473 / 14446427) 99.96%
49.9000% 49.9445 ( 15302 / 30638) 100.09%
50.0000% 49.9687 ( 782017 / 1565015) 99.94%
51.0000% 50.9285 ( 94919 / 186377) 99.86%
55.0000% 54.7119 ( 17812 / 32556) 99.48%
60.0000% 59.9535 ( 113929 / 190029) 99.92%
62.0000% 61.4558 ( 9093 / 14796) 99.12%
65.0000% 64.9468 ( 30060 / 46284) 99.92%
66.0000% 65.9256 ( 186665 / 283145) 99.89%
66.4430% 66.7673 ( 25210 / 37758) 100.49%
70.0000% 69.4754 ( 34489 / 49642) 99.25%
70.0141% 69.2011 ( 6990 / 10101) 98.84%
70.5000% 70.5446 ( 233032 / 330333) 100.06%
70.7100% 70.7876 ( 50691 / 71610) 100.11%
71.0000% 70.9901 ( 24909 / 35088) 99.99%
73.0000% 72.9080 ( 8216 / 11269) 99.87%
75.0000% 74.8953 ( 120007 / 160233) 99.86%
79.2000% 79.4727 ( 40694 / 51205) 100.34%
80.0000% 80.0375 ( 536554 / 670378) 100.05%
82.5000% 82.5868 ( 118422 / 143391) 100.11%
84.0000% 83.9911 ( 17282 / 20576) 99.99%
85.0000% 84.8832 ( 93689 / 110374) 99.86%
86.0000% 85.7062 ( 16591 / 19358) 99.66%
87.0000% 86.9749 ( 91114 / 104759) 99.97%
87.7700% 87.7617 ( 10355 / 11799) 99.99%
87.7779% 87.7891 (1587449 / 1808252) 100.01%
87.7790% 87.3803 ( 18619 / 21308) 99.55%
88.0000% 88.0235 ( 213104 / 242099) 100.03%
90.0000% 90.0060 (1591265 / 1767955) 100.01%
91.6666% 92.0482 ( 9851 / 10702) 100.42%
94.2857% 94.2412 ( 42303 / 44888) 99.95%
95.0000% 94.8751 ( 65701 / 69250) 99.87%
95.1923% 95.1306 ( 57691 / 60644) 99.94%
96.0000% 95.8962 ( 38977 / 40645) 99.89%
97.0000% 97.0465 ( 12256 / 12629) 100.05%
98.0000% 98.0235 ( 158954 / 162159) 100.02%
102.59%
0.0010% 0.0000 ( 0 / 27898) 0.00%
0.0100% 0.0195 ( 2 / 10232) 195.47%
0.1000% 0.1046 ( 34 / 32493) 104.64%
0.7920% 0.7897 ( 91 / 11524) 99.70%
0.9900% 1.0450 ( 163 / 15598) 105.56%
1.0000% 1.0128 ( 2918 / 288098) 101.28%
1.5000% 1.7034 ( 177 / 10391) 113.56%
1.6000% 1.6021 ( 267 / 16666) 100.13%
2.0000% 2.1232 ( 1208 / 56894) 106.16%
2.4750% 2.7755 ( 408 / 14700) 112.14%
2.7500% 2.6493 ( 279 / 10531) 96.34%
3.0000% 2.8873 ( 638 / 22097) 96.24%
3.9600% 3.7136 ( 667 / 17961) 93.78%
4.0000% 4.0446 ( 14927 / 369059) 101.12%
4.1250% 4.2604 ( 1414 / 33189) 103.28%
4.5000% 4.6285 ( 1697 / 36664) 102.86%
4.9500% 4.9804 ( 12668 / 254359) 100.61%
5.0000% 5.0414 ( 8957 / 177669) 100.83%
6.1875% 6.1245 ( 2413 / 39399) 98.98%
8.2500% 8.3051 ( 3237 / 38976) 100.67%
8.4126% 8.5661 ( 6225 / 72670) 101.82%
9.0000% 8.9769 ( 11478 / 127862) 99.74%
9.9000% 10.0373 ( 12103 / 120580) 101.39%
10.0000% 9.9937 ( 445492 / 4457711) 99.94%
11.0000% 10.9601 ( 16411 / 149734) 99.64%
12.0000% 12.0225 ( 2672 / 22225) 100.19%
12.2222% 12.2281 ( 3486 / 28508) 100.05%
12.3750% 12.3383 ( 89148 / 722531) 99.70%
14.1400% 14.0661 ( 19502 / 138645) 99.48%
14.1426% 14.2449 ( 1797 / 12615) 100.72%
14.1429% 14.3587 ( 2277 / 15858) 101.53%
15.0000% 14.9378 ( 3217 / 21536) 99.59%
16.0000% 15.9314 ( 1607 / 10087) 99.57%
16.5000% 16.5450 ( 27314 / 165089) 100.27%
17.9900% 17.9268 ( 22655 / 126375) 99.65%
18.9900% 19.0439 ( 4629 / 24307) 100.28%
19.8000% 19.8489 ( 30768 / 155011) 100.25%
20.0000% 20.1069 ( 56303 / 280018) 100.53%
23.0000% 23.1202 ( 2715 / 11743) 100.52%
24.0000% 23.8618 ( 9963 / 41753) 99.42%
24.5000% 24.2011 ( 4150 / 17148) 98.78%
24.7500% 24.8459 ( 18900 / 76069) 100.39%
25.0000% 25.0290 ( 48379 / 193292) 100.12%
26.0000% 25.9508 ( 22176 / 85454) 99.81%
30.0000% 30.0167 ( 70609 / 235232) 100.06%
32.0000% 32.1967 ( 13068 / 40588) 100.61%
33.0000% 33.0236 ( 191353 / 579444) 100.07%
33.3333% 33.3778 ( 80777 / 242008) 100.13%
35.0000% 35.0552 ( 308135 / 878999) 100.16%
39.0000% 38.8207 ( 18658 / 48062) 99.54%
39.6000% 39.5171 ( 37874 / 95842) 99.79%
40.0000% 39.9578 ( 64891 / 162399) 99.89%
41.2500% 41.3686 ( 5737 / 13868) 100.29%
42.0000% 42.2562 ( 29824 / 70579) 100.61%
43.0000% 42.9035 ( 14821 / 34545) 99.78%
44.0000% 44.0615 ( 22604 / 51301) 100.14%
45.0000% 44.9605 ( 173839 / 386648) 99.91%
45.5000% 45.2506 ( 6698 / 14802) 99.45%
46.0000% 45.8192 ( 112094 / 244644) 99.61%
46.3483% 46.1318 ( 30530 / 66180) 99.53%
46.3800% 46.9585 ( 7349 / 15650) 101.25%
46.5000% 45.6302 ( 8834 / 19360) 98.13%
46.5800% 47.1283 ( 5867 / 12449) 101.18%
46.6800% 46.4351 ( 13397 / 28851) 99.48%
46.8000% 47.3237 ( 28708 / 60663) 101.12%
47.0000% 47.2146 ( 31978 / 67729) 100.46%
47.1429% 46.8395 ( 8277 / 17671) 99.36%
47.5000% 47.9066 ( 6751 / 14092) 100.86%
48.0000% 47.8328 ( 64768 / 135405) 99.65%
48.5000% 48.6159 ( 23358 / 48046) 100.24%
48.8100% 48.8479 ( 101417 / 207618) 100.08%
49.0000% 49.0585 ( 257060 / 523987) 100.12%
49.2000% 49.2900 ( 5415 / 10986) 100.18%
49.5000% 49.4826 (7148473 / 14446427) 99.96%
49.9000% 49.9445 ( 15302 / 30638) 100.09%
50.0000% 49.9687 ( 782017 / 1565015) 99.94%
51.0000% 50.9285 ( 94919 / 186377) 99.86%
55.0000% 54.7119 ( 17812 / 32556) 99.48%
60.0000% 59.9535 ( 113929 / 190029) 99.92%
62.0000% 61.4558 ( 9093 / 14796) 99.12%
65.0000% 64.9468 ( 30060 / 46284) 99.92%
66.0000% 65.9256 ( 186665 / 283145) 99.89%
66.4430% 66.7673 ( 25210 / 37758) 100.49%
70.0000% 69.4754 ( 34489 / 49642) 99.25%
70.0141% 69.2011 ( 6990 / 10101) 98.84%
70.5000% 70.5446 ( 233032 / 330333) 100.06%
70.7100% 70.7876 ( 50691 / 71610) 100.11%
71.0000% 70.9901 ( 24909 / 35088) 99.99%
73.0000% 72.9080 ( 8216 / 11269) 99.87%
75.0000% 74.8953 ( 120007 / 160233) 99.86%
79.2000% 79.4727 ( 40694 / 51205) 100.34%
80.0000% 80.0375 ( 536554 / 670378) 100.05%
82.5000% 82.5868 ( 118422 / 143391) 100.11%
84.0000% 83.9911 ( 17282 / 20576) 99.99%
85.0000% 84.8832 ( 93689 / 110374) 99.86%
86.0000% 85.7062 ( 16591 / 19358) 99.66%
87.0000% 86.9749 ( 91114 / 104759) 99.97%
87.7700% 87.7617 ( 10355 / 11799) 99.99%
87.7779% 87.7891 (1587449 / 1808252) 100.01%
87.7790% 87.3803 ( 18619 / 21308) 99.55%
88.0000% 88.0235 ( 213104 / 242099) 100.03%
90.0000% 90.0060 (1591265 / 1767955) 100.01%
91.6666% 92.0482 ( 9851 / 10702) 100.42%
94.2857% 94.2412 ( 42303 / 44888) 99.95%
95.0000% 94.8751 ( 65701 / 69250) 99.87%
95.1923% 95.1306 ( 57691 / 60644) 99.94%
96.0000% 95.8962 ( 38977 / 40645) 99.89%
97.0000% 97.0465 ( 12256 / 12629) 100.05%
98.0000% 98.0235 ( 158954 / 162159) 100.02%
102.59%
I'm only showing chances which have had 10k or more bets.
Before generating the list I said it was probably due to vlees and nimda both hitting 0.0001% about twice as quickly as expected, and that does appear to be the reason. 1 million of the total 40 million bets have an average luck of 200% each. Dilute that 40 times over and you get 102.5%. Nice and tidy result.
So the whole site's luck is still affected predominantly by a single lucky roll. If only one of the two of them had hit the 1-in-a-million, as expected, luck would be very close to 100%.