While I generally agree with your approach, you can't include the tokens reserved for future sale in your calculation.
I didn't.
Also, they revised their budget to be a fixed $3 million, but my guess is that this will change again since the value of ETH had gone up so much.
They did revise it, however it's not fixed $3 million, but 30% of total contributed ETH and no less than $3 million.