Based on what? Last time it went all the way down to around break even ($200) for miners despite people like you saying.. oh.. it will never go under 500. Oh.. There's strong demand and it won't go under $400.. blah blah blah. No one knows shit and it can make it's all the way back down again which, after the halving is probably now around $400-$600. Why? Cause as long as it is slowly going down (which is what happened last time), people lose interest and leave the market. The vast majority are looking to get rich over night and don't have what it takes to wait it out over some years.