This is getting tiring. Nothing seems to confuse homo oeconomicus more than applied statistics.

You model the solo case one-sided as if it was a rule that one will find nothing. There is equal probability to get a block on the first day of mining as there is to find one too late.

0% pools still keep the transaction fees and suffer from more stale shares than possible when you go solo. Again, I didn't claim that pools are considerably worse, they just don't have better returns on average.