Or it could be like the peak in April 2013 and the drop from $214 to $64, then rise to $1200 months after:
I think the Futures Exchange opening up, the bull up was massive. Now Dollars can Short bitcoin. I think there's going to be more Shorts of bitcoin in the Futures market. It will keep pushing bitcoin down for a period of time. When Lightning starts to get massive adoption, the new bitcoin boom will start. The Futures Traders that short will get squeezed out, transfer of wealth will go away from them and into bitcoin holders, and the next boom starts. End of this year looks like a good time as any, but can even go into next year.
I hear rumours that Wordpress will soon be able to accept bitcoin using Lightning, that's going to be a huge technology that will increase bitcoin usage.
Okay one more post because this important and a timely issue.
I cant say with certainty that youre incorrect. I just want to point that you may be misunderstanding what appears to be driving this rocket. Afaics, its not transaction volume adoption, but rather the fact that everyone we talk to is interested in getting into speculating on Bitcoin. Most of them arent even informed enough to know about the transaction fee issue.
Bitcoin headed to $100,000 in 2018, says analyst who predicted last year's price rise- Bitcoin could hit $100,000 in 2018, an analyst who correctly predicted the cryptocurrency's rally at the start of last year told CNBC
- Van-Petersen now says bitcoin will be driven by a larger uptake of institutional investors and futures contracts
"First off, you could argue we have had a proper correction in bitcoin, it has had a 50 percent pull back at one point, which is healthy. But we have still not seen the full effect of the futures contracts," Van-Petersen said.
Futures contracts dont exist just to make profits on shorting. Profits can be made going long also.
Apparently the actual volume on the futures has been underwhelming thus far, so theyre serving more as a confidence confirmation:
The move was seen as a way to get more institutional investors involved in the cryptocurrency market and legitimize it. But trading
got off to a light start. Van-Petersen said that more institutions will get on board over time, but it won't happen quickly.
Shake the trees to get the weak hands to sell, then theyve got to go long because theres too much fundamental demand at this time.
Even my son, my ex-wife, and several random Joe foreigners I ran into for first time in past month in the Philippines are all mentioning the Bitcoin phenomenon and wanting to know what is the best price to get in. Even my 71 year old mother finally admitted that I was working in area that is becoming legitimate and hot topic.
My expert trader friend says he has so many contacts in the USA mentioning they want to get in and HODL.
Mark Cuban is even getting into cryptocurrency, and so many people look to him as a $billionaire to follow.
Juggernaut.
Also take a look at that
regression fit chart I had linked in my prior comment post. Youll note that the current move to ~$20K was very similar is relationship to the trendline on that chart to the $214 April 2013 peak, not the subsequent $1200 peak before the long crypto winter.
I think $100k is plausible before the ensuing ~27 month decline by perhaps -2/3 of the price. We should at least reach $40k on this peak (although we might get a multi-month pause and correction after reaching $18k $25k first).