This is also grossly how I see it.   Except that the arcs become wider and wider (longer and longer periods of down between the bubbles).  And look, we're heading for the next few years towards something like $3000, and the next bubble is maybe 5 or 6 years away.  The first one of size was in the summer of 2011.  The second one was at the end of 2013 (so 2-3 years).  The third one was at the end of 2017 (so 4 years).  This is why I think we're in for a bear period of a few years, down to a few $1000.  In 2014/2015, we went down a factor of 6.  In 2012, we went down a factor of about 10.  And then of course, there may be a last bubble.  Hard to say.  Once everyone has been burned once, where is the new army of greater fools ?