I have to 100% agree with the people being really sceptic of the Avalon $200 mil investment effecting short/medium term ASIC. 20 nm is FAR away to be produced in anything even close to volume. Sure, it will be an impressive next-gen tech, bit it will be late 2014 before anyone sees it in action. Plenary of time for the rest of the Eco system to be very profitable for a long time.
Basically the $200 million investment is GREAT for Bitcoin legitimacy etc. but n
Has no short/medium term effect on any of the current projects.
Lots of derisive, dismissive discussion about Lewis' disruptive $200 million Avalon investment ^here^ and in other posts.
It sure is easy to pat ourselves on the back and scoff at their ambitious, bleeding-edge 20nm roadmap.
Much less mentioned among the JV cheerleader crew is Cointerra's impending angel-funded full-custom 28nm chip.
Do you hear that creaking noise? That's the sound of our popsicle stand's plastic and particle board supports being crushed by Cointerra's tank treads.
Whistling past the graveyard isn't going to help us avoid being obsolete before Christmas.
I predict a wave of bankruptcies, consolidation/aquisitions, and mergers in the ASIC space as human/financial capital requirements to stay competitive begin overwhelming the garage inventor outfits.
The fact is, the tanks aren't arriving in 2014. Your doom & gloom scenario has a lot of time to develop. So pull up your rock, and climb back into that hole your living in.