This may seem like a dumb question, but is there somewhere I can look on the site that will show we are getting close to a block or we don't know until it's found? The way Kano worded his response about getting to 100%, I feel like maybe I am missing something. Trying to better understand it all. Thank you for shedding light.
On the Kano.is site in the top left next to shares is a %. That is the expected work to find a block, at 100% a block is expected. How far over or under 100% is the diff%.
Yeah but there's a (probably not) fun point to understand about that %
History has no effect on future luck.
But this actually means something else also:
The next block is always 'expected' to be 100% from 'now' not 100% from the last block.
A simple example to explain that would be:
If I run a pool and then when it gets to 90% Diff, shut down the pool, and start a new pool.
Will that new pool be expected to find a block in the first 10% Diff?
No, there's a bunch of CDF stats about the likelihood of that, but the expected next block, for the new pool is 100% at the point when it first starts.
The reason this makes sense is that: Luck is a measurement of the past - but luck plays no part in what you 'expect' to happen.
So when some other pool says "Hey we're close to 100% we should find a block soon" then you know to stay away from that pool if the pool OP doesn't correct that false statement.