Avalon Shmavalon.
Back onto KNCminer's order numbers... they have "
Day 1" and "
Day 2" as some kind of shipping batch identification.
I figured they could ship a few hundred 4RU machines a day, if that...
So this guy is just now auctioning a "Day 1" order with order number #1824:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=268149.0So which of the following applies??
- Day 1 doesn't actually mean the first day of shipping.
- There are a lot of unpaid orders up to order number 1824.
- Somehow KNCminer will be shipping almost 2000 x 4RU units in a single day....

There are a lot of unpaid orders generally. When you submit an order you are allocated an order number and even if you don't pay it still stays in their system.
A friend of mine just placed one - Order ID: 52xx
More important is how many of these 5200 orders are paid for and real - this information would be very valuable in establishing the expected (very rough) estimate of the future hash rate, thus easier to calculate possibility of positive ROI.
Because right now I don't really care how much net profit I can make as long as it is positive.
For example even with 1 billion difficulty it still makes sense to mine with KNC Miner and it is very simple to calculate returns - 1 billion difficulty equals 7158.278TH/s, so if you have 400GH/s miner = 400/7158000=0.0000558815 shares of the 3600 daily coins=0.2011734 coins per day=6.13BTC per month.
Fishy at best, I have order #5x, and its a "Day two of production" order. Sam has also stated he does not want sales of pre-orders, and will do what he can to stop it.