Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
realr0ach
on 23/01/2018, 09:56:14 UTC
but, Enky says that if it were to reach this level, it would become a bear market.

The charts these people are making saying it's going to infinity are completely irrelevant if cost of production doesn't increase IMO.  Like I said before, in practice bitcoin doesn't actually have a finite supply, but infinite supply when transaction fees are recirculated as block reward.  There's no reason for anyone to buy $11,000 coins when they can just mine coins for $3000 cost of production.  The fact the Chinese govt is forcing miners to turn off to lower cost of production even further would make any upside even more problematic.  

The only real way the price of bitcoin can stay absurdly higher than cost of production is if it was completely centralized and monopolized by a cartel, which it mostly is, but there's enough stray miners in the mix to steadily peck the price down closer to cost of production over time.  Another interesting way this dynamic will play out soon is when oil producers stop accepting dollars for oil and want things like gold, silver, or other physical commodities for it.  Since the ESF naked shorts metals down to cost of production in $USD terms, and the cost of production is almost entirely from oil denominated in dollars, oil de-linking from dollars (things like yuan/oil contract) sends metals cost of production astronomically higher in dollar terms.  

Peak oil (really a bad term when it should be called oil EROI collapse) and peak gold/silver have all ocurred and will be doing that regardless, though.