the way I see Technical Analysis is that it is and always has been a total bullshit that has no reason to be true. at least 90% of it is. that is why many call TA pseudoscience!
BUT the thing is, a lot of people follow it so it comes true!
imagine if majority expect a price drop. what would they do? they sell so price drops.
what if they expect a price rise? they buy so it goes up.
so I say TA is not predicting the future, it is shaping it. in this case when the third down happens the expectation is a rise. now combine that with all the $10k is the bottom, January is the time to drop and February is the rising month each year, the LN news, the adoption,.... and you get yourself a prediction that is coming true.
The thing you are missing is WHAT makes them think it's time to buy or sell. If the price is rising and TA doesn't tell you anything, then why does it tell us? Why doesn't price just keep rising?...since apparently, by your belief, there is endless demand no matter the price. In actuality, we see weakening trends because indicators are directly tied to rate of change/strength/momentum...etc. We see that buyers are running out for the time being and we take profit. Likewise, we see sellers hitting a price level that they just aren't willing to continue selling at or below so we buy. Besides 5 up and 3 down, there are other factors. What makes it "Psuedoscience" is akin to medicine. It will never be a perfect science, and neither will a doctor say medicine is a perfect science, but like science, we make our hypothesis based on the information we have on hand.
@OP
There is already a masterluc analysis thread, so go there to worship.