On a serious note though; what's the latest on KNC's progress?
Does the October shipping date seem likely?
We have no reason to believe they won't hit their ship-date at this point. The only evidence we have that they will is their claim that they are on time with everything so far.Does the October shipping date seem likely?
)"competitors": Everytime I read that I think "LIARS". "BULLSHITTERS"
No, to be honest I have absolutely no idea how announcing the completion of concrete milestones including dates should help any competitor, when you are on track for September delivery.
They must have a internal project plan with dates for all the major milestones (there are a lot of them), which finally ends with delivery to customers end of September, which is not that far away.
From my point of view, being more transparent here could only be beneficial for KnC with respect to their reputation and a kind of "shock and awe" for any competitor.
Some of them would maybe stop development completely, because they will realize that they are too late in game and that nobody will buy their products when KnC already has 28nm chips on the market for several months. But this would only be valid, if you have an realistic plan and if you are 100% on track.
They won't publish any internal timeline because as soon as they had miss a "milestone" people would get very nervous (BFL docet)
Yes, that might be true. If you have a look at the "BFL ASIC status" blog at the BFL forum, Josh tried to be really transparent at the beginning of their ASIC project. Many of their problems were not caused by BFL directly. They were also in the hands of 3rd parties, which missed the targets and consults BFL probably not optimal.
So if KnC are already aware of one or more missed internal milestones (caused by themselves or 3rd parties), it would not be ok to claim that they are on track for September delivery. No offence, but in this case such a statement would be a lie, because there is absolute no margin in a realistic project schedule for September delivery, which would allow any time delay caused by a missed milestone (as shown above).
So one should assume, being on track for September delivery means all KnC internal milestones reached in time so far. Why not announce them in this case?
I guess ASIC companies prefer to stay silent or lie a la BFL when pre-order money is being spent for good and refunds could become a big problem because of missed deadlines.
Let's remember that all the ASIC projects developed or in development (Avalon, BFL, KnC...) are HUGE projects managed by tiny companies. Many delays (most of them I'd say) are caused by 3rd parties involved in the process, being very transparent with all the milestones is the best from a customer/investor point of view, but tricky for the ASIC manufacturers. If there is no official "missed deadline" wishful thinkers will be happy and won't complain while dream about their money printing machines. The less explanations you give, the safer you are from a PR point of view I guess.
This only works in the BitCoin ASIC business with thousands of small unaware pre-order investors.
The day by day business in a normal ASIC start-up company developing a product financed by one big venture capitalist looks completely different. This investor sits in your neck all the time and wants to know what exactly you did day by day hour by hour and when he will make money with the product. And you have to answer him, otherwise he will go immediately away with his money.