Last November you could get NVST for about $0.25, right now it is more like $3.00 on average. (12X - 3 month)
Ockham's razor states that; “With all things being equal, the simplest explanation tends to be the right one.”
Depending on your school of thought, according to the rule of the third,
Combined with diminishing marginal returns {C=0.5};

You could now guesstimate that the following is indeed accurate;

too pessimistic........$  0.01
pessimistic.............$  9.00
moderate..............$ 18.00
YOU.....................$ 20.00
optimistic.............$ 36.00
too optimistic.......$ 32,400.00

As you can see,  $20 is neither moderate nor optimistic.
IMO you are a "moderate optimist".

As per your first question, only time will tell.