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Board Service Announcements (Altcoins)
Re: Just-Dice.com : Play or Invest : 1% House Edge : Banter++
by
dooglus
on 08/08/2013, 16:52:38 UTC
Similarly, if I state my goal is either to double my money or go bust on just-dice, the chance that I double my money with one bet is 49.5%. If I bet 1/10th of that on the same bet until I either double my money or go bust, the chance is higher I go bust (not going to waste my time in R to tell you the odds...)

People keep saying that, but they are wrong.  If you want to double your money, you have a higher chance if you place multiple bets than if you place a single bet.  You have to pick the right multiple bets of course.

It's really quite easy to demonstrate:

If you place a single bet, then the chance of doubling your money is 49.5%.

Now consider this 2 bet sequence:

1. bet 0.41421356 BTC with payout 3.41421356x and chance 28.99642866% to win 1.41421356 BTC for a profit of 1 BTC
2. if you lose, bet 0.58578644 BTC at the same payout and chance to win 2 BTC for a net profit of 1 BTC.

Your overall chance of success is 49.58492857%.  That is higher than 49.5%.

(Note that those bets aren't exactly available on Just-Dice, since chance is only available to 4 significant figures, but that's just a nit-pick.  It's still possible to double your money with a higher than 49.5% chance using 2 bets, and not using 1 bet).