I checked out the silkroad forum some time ago (was never active on silkroad but just wanted to read in the forums). One guy was asking for 0.4 BTC (completly anonymous) 0.4 BTC was like 15$ back then. Because i had mined a lot of coins back then, i gave him the 0.4 to help him out, and did not think that i will get it back ever. After aprox. 1 Week i got 0.74 back! Somehow my faith in humanity was restored that day. I mean he could have easily just taken the BTC, he had 1 post in the forum and just registered. And it was via TOR!.
Maybe i shoudl just checkout that old transaction, get his BTC sending address, check if it is still used via blockchain and send him the diff 0.74-0.4 in a random act of kidness. I think he somehow deserves a medal!

Back to topic, i guess the chance is somehow 50:50 that you get your money back.