You are on right track, In beginner stage most of the people will do this mistakes by signing up for all airdrops what they come across. There are many potential airdrops happening around. Instead of simply sign up, spend some time for each airdrop and find the best.
And don't forget - Once you became pro in finding best, share your knowledge to the community.
Really? You can do that to airdrop? I mean analyzing which airdrop project which will be succesfull? You must be some kind of God!
As far as I know, all if not mpst airdrop projects dont have roadmap, no proper website, no clear team, no whitepaper, no real usability. Where do you analyze your data from? Im just curious LOL