So the basis of your argument is that ASICMiner is a miracle, and all the other companies are going to go the way of BFL/Avalon?
That's a bold gamble, considering the starting cash that some of these guys are getting (Cointerra, for example, has experienced industry professionals and $1.5M). And the "2nd or 3rd gen tech" argument is silly, since the new startups are going straight for those nodes, they're not starting at gen 1.
The reality is that the barrier to entry for new ASIC companies is quite low. In my opinion, either ASICMiner was a lighting strike, or things are going to turn sour for them.
But hey, I've been saying this since 2.5 BTC a share. I'm wrong so far.
ASICMiner is ahead to this day and thus in superior position.
But as You say, boo can happen if they fall asleep or slow down.
Currently I don't see any problem since everything is going according to the plan.
Even rise of the competition is anticipated already.