so... a3 is a no go, I guess
Long term, A3 can be expected to do "as well" as L3 & S9 are doing at the moment. L3 & S9 are in range of $250-350/mo at the moment. Currently, the A3 looks like it will be doing $30/day for the next 50 days or so then maybe $10/day after March. Still not bad.
Long term, if the project is successful, I see SC at $0.20-$0.60 range within 2-3 years. That part is speculation of course.
I can promise you that after the next batches hit the network, daily profit will be around $2.50. Like the D3 is today. People keep forgetting.....this is ONE COIN. The X11 network was already dangerously thin and it contains several coins. This one.....not so much.
It depends on how many they sell on batch 2. If they sell same amount of batch 1, I am pretty sure it will be way better than $2.5. More like $15-$20 or better if sia stays at 0.03 to 0.04.
So Batch 1 sent daily profit from $500.00 to $40.00 and difficulty from 650 TH to 11,561,001 TH, and you think another batch of the same magnitude will only knock $20.00 a day off the current profitability?
Um....ok.....if you say so.
Say there are 10K miners fighting for 144 blocks a day and make $40 worth coins a day. 20k miners will make $20. Why do you think I am wrong? Lol
I don't think you're " wrong " per say, I just think that, while I applaud your optimism, I have seen this movie before. Keep in mind that Bitmain runs one of the largest mining farms in the world. The 10k would indeed be nice. I'm just jaded and skeptical. I am 100% convinced that Bitmain has a "long game" plan here with SIA. Part of that is to control as much of the coin as humanly possible. E.g.; BCH. This little protocol fits very well into Bitmain's future plans in AI. Cloud Storage is a Holy Grail for their long term plans.
Your argument seems to support the mine and hold strategy. Mine and hold.
I am not mining it. I am just buying it. As much as I can. It's almost down to 3 cents now. I do mine a lot of other things but I also went through the D3 shitshow. Granted on a small scale but I just don't need the distraction. Those D3's have always been the highest power draw, lowest profit and most problematic mechanically in my farm. For 3 cents I can buy a metric shit ton of SIA and see if my theory plays out. I suspect it will take a long time but hey. Who cares.
By my calcs,,, by the time batch 2 hits in late March.... most batch 1 buyers will have ROI'd. What you do at that point is up to you. One thing is for sure, Bitmain is not handing out any free lunches. Will you have been better off buying the coin during this 2 months?.... if the price stays steady or goes down,,,, then No. I think BTC needs to hit $8k, before it finds its feet again.