Nope, don't agree with you.  I think it's just as likely to go down to 6k than it is to go back up to 20k.  I've seen nothing that convinces me otherwise.  Your two scenarios are not the only scenarios, although pretty unlikely there's a non-negligible chance it could go even lower than 5k.  In short, anything can happen.  I'll wait to see some stability before buying more bitcoins.