Re: GBTC Bitcoin Investment Trust – the 74% premium to NAV is based on a fallacy
In that premium, GBTC still has payments for Bitcoin Gold and Bitcoin Segwit2x baked into the price (so that could be another say $600 a BTC depending on when GBTC sold them).
Not so. The Bitcoin Gold dividend had a record date of Dec 4.The Segwit2x dividend had a record date of Jan. 8. So any buyer of GBTC after Jan. 8 gets neither of those payouts, including those who bought at a 54% premium at the close yesterday, or a 74% premium the day before.
COINXBT *still* has not paid for Bitcoin Cash and they sold at a pathetically low rate anyway (around $300) compared to GBTC's better ~$1300 or so.
OK but was that skill or luck? Is it repeatable with future forks? If COINXBT sells its forked crypto consistently faster than GBTC, then if a fork happens when we are in a generally down market for crypto, that speed will help not hurt you with COINXBT.
Hell, even in the scant amount of retirement funds that offer "brokerage" trading on individual stocks (which probably takes weeks/months for an employee to get approval through their idiotic HR/benefits department), I bet they don't allow exposure to foreign currency-denominated investments like COINXBT.
There is a fellow on SeekingAlpha who recently was able to buy COINXBT in an IRA at Fidelity: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4137459-bitcoin-altcoins-missing-wave?ifp=0&v=1516625100 (toward bottom of the comments section, post by Jim Craddock 25 Jan 2018, 01:50 PM).
Honestly, the premium will remain. Close your short and go long BTC, fine, but don't try to short GBTC
The premium came down 20 percentage points yesterday. Some part of that could be due to my continuing efforts to spread the word about the zero-premium alternatives. As the word spreads, I think the premium will come down further. And I don't find it TOO risky because I am long a basket of crypto; in fact since I am NET long (long basket exceeds short GBTC), the greater risk to me is that Ethereum et al continue to go down.