Re: [BitFunder] IceDrill.ASIC IPO (500 Thash Mining Operation powered by HashFast)
I'm still wrapping my head at why someone would want to pay 0.0016 for 10MH/s starting at best in November. It is a HUGE gamble for that price point, investors are taking a big risk.
At 0.0016 for 10MH/s, 1GH/s/W:
Even when buying at 0.0014, the risk is very big:
This is assuming optimal conditions where: (1) The chips are able to get no worse than 1GH/s/W (imho this is still the biggest gamble of HF chips) and (2) the only operational expenses needed to be paid are the energy consumption, it's neck to neck. Factoring all the extra costs (cooling, maintenance, personnel, ...) and the "growth" cut, just makes it overboard as it hardly will be enough to compensate for the network growth rate expected during Q3 2013 and Q1 2014.
At 0.0016 for 10MH/s, 1GH/s/W:
- Mining starts in November: http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/6ac6bcc5b6 (Break Even Period: 78 days, Max Profit: 0.000739 (Sep-14) - 46.2%)
- Mining starts in December: http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/779736272d (No break-even!)
Even when buying at 0.0014, the risk is very big:
- Mining starts in November: http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/b0c610062c (Break Even Period: 62 days, Max Profit: 0.000939 (Sep-14) - 67.1%)
- Mining starts in December: http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/029bdce47a (Break Even Period: 160 days, Max Profit: 0.000103 (Sep-14) - 7.37%)
This is assuming optimal conditions where: (1) The chips are able to get no worse than 1GH/s/W (imho this is still the biggest gamble of HF chips) and (2) the only operational expenses needed to be paid are the energy consumption, it's neck to neck. Factoring all the extra costs (cooling, maintenance, personnel, ...) and the "growth" cut, just makes it overboard as it hardly will be enough to compensate for the network growth rate expected during Q3 2013 and Q1 2014.