I think it is going to be too late for a 500GHs device in late Q4
Well they have said that the chips are 500 GH, not the devices. Maybe they'll throw 16 of them in a box and charge 7k for it? Don't really see how they will generate much in the way of orders otherwise.
People don't realize that multiple chips make up miners. They need to be at the magical number of 1th per $1000ish or less to be worthwhile against any competition and longevity as they seem to be hinting at.
that would be great but is it possible?
Probably not. Silicon wafer's aren't that cheap. Even in high volume we are talking $5K a piece. So there will always be a chip production cost. Unless you get a design which is significantly more efficient (GH/s per mm) at the same process (28nm) you are probably looking at more than that just for chip production cost. Of course that ignores the BOM, assembly, testing, defects, profit margin, and amortizing the NRE. I don't know how low chip companies can go but I think $1 per GH/s is like hoping gold will go below $300 an ounce (current minimal production cost).
What do you mean it's def. possible. Look at intels numbers they sell chips for $100 dollars, or $30 atom processors to OEMs. Now of course these guys don't have that type of volume but it's still very doable. Perfect case in point is with Avalon batch 1, they sold them for like $1200 dollars and one module had hundreds of chips on it.
The silicon itself has a cost. The cost of miner is never going to be below the silicon cost, plus cutting, packaging, testing, etc. Then you add on BOM (balance of material = everything in a miner other than the ASIC), assembly, labor, profit margin, defects.
$1 per GH/s is pretty close to the silicon cost. Chip companies aren't going to sell chips at a loss.
As suppliers continue to ramp up production numbers the price of blank 12-inch silicon wafers continues to fall. Early in the year 12-inch blank wafers were about US$500, but have since fallen to $200, reflecting the nearly three-fold production increases by some suppliers. I wouldn't even care to guess what the prices are now probably a few dollars the most.
Again Avalon has hundreds of chips on their unit, and they were able to make a profit on it at $1200 and that was hundreds of chips so I'm sorry but i think you are way off with your pricing.