Post
Topic
Board Development & Technical Discussion
Re: Some cryptocurrency questions for dinofelis.
by
dinofelis
on 04/02/2018, 10:08:36 UTC
If you can make it such, that the economic cost of PoW is constant, or even continuously slight increasing, you can have an automatic price regulating mechanism of your currency, that will always avoid it becoming a speculative asset.
You cannot regulate the price of an item without controlling both supply AND demand. Just changing the supply side isn't enough, and there's no way to control the demand side with this proposal.

With a collectible, the notion of "offer" is different than with a commodity which is consumed, of course, because there is offer also from those selling it after having "used" it.  

With a consumable, there's a net flow from production to consumption, and "offer and demand" are relatively straightforward notions.  With a collectible that also has economic utility (say, real estate), we have both an offer by production, and by people selling it after having consumed some economic utility of it.   We are dealing here with collectibles that are not consumables, and that have no economic utility per se: they are speculative assets.  There are two classes of speculative assets: "same fool" assets, and "greater fool" assets.  In principle, there could also be "lesser fool" assets, but these things don't really work out.

A purely speculative asset is ONLY acquired because of its rational future expectation of value.  You can't do anything economically useful with it.  As such, the ONLY thing you can do with it, is keep it, or sell it.  In that respect, it is different from, for example, real estate.  Even though you may have a speculative aspect of real estate (you buy it with the idea to sell it), it has economic utility: you can live in a house.  You can do useful things with it while you have it.  You would even want to spend money on it just for this utility, independent of your expectation to sell it.  So real estate having intrinsic economic utility, you are not ONLY acquiring to sell it.  You buy a house to live in, and you also expect it to be able to sell it, but you still need it to live, so even if you weren't selling it, you would be ready to pay money for it.  With a purely speculative asset, the ONLY thing that gives it value, is the rational expectation of its value when you sell it.

Now, the relationship between your readiness to buy it now and your rational expectation of selling it later, is what classifies the asset.

a) if you are willing to buy it now at a price that is comparable to your rational expectation to sell it later, it is money.  You only do this because you need to transport value in time.  Whether that is a transport from last week to next week (your salary/groceries) in the short term, or whether it is savings for your kid's college over several years, your rational expectation is TRANSPORT OF VALUE.   Such a system is a "same fool" kind of asset, which is money.  Ideally, you would like to have little risk (of losses), and little gains.  The perfect form of this asset is what Nash calls "ideal money".  This transport in time in itself is an economic utility, and that's, ultimately, where such an asset derives its value from. You can use Fisher's formula to estimate its value as a function of the economic utility (time transport - inverse velocity vs amount of value).  In fact, the economic utility you derive from being able to transport value, even allows you to "pay" for it, that is, to accept that you will get SLIGHTLY less value later than now.  This is why slightly inflationary currencies can exist.

b) if you are willing to buy it now at a price only if your rational expectation is to sell it later for much more, it is a financial speculative asset.  You want to make a benefit.  This is a "greater fool" kind of asset. It is a form of gambling.  You are willing to accept great risk (namely, that you were the greater fool) in order to make great benefit (find a much greater fool than you are).  

c) of course, nobody is willing to buy an asset now of which your rational expectations are that it will be much less worth later.  "lesser fool" assets only exist for a short time.  In fact, greater fool assets have tendency to turn into lesser fool assets when they run out of greater fools.

All these assets need of course a recursive belief.  There's no economic need for them, like real estate.  If people collectively decide that your stuff isn't worth anything, it isn't worth anything.  So there's no way to "regulate price" in the upward sense.  You cannot guarantee a lower price limit.  The only way to guarantee a lower price limit is to make a redeemable, backed asset for true economic utility.  A "backed" currency, for instance, backed with real estate, or land.  That was John Law's invention.  But you cannot make a trustless backed asset ! A backed asset is a debt asset.    But that's "burk" in crypto land and in any case, you need a form of law enforcement to guarantee the backing is effectively redeemed.

So with a purely, stand-alone, non-backed asset, there's no way to have a lower limit on value in any case.  However, there's a simple way to have a higher limit: by allowing unlimited emission of new coins when that higher limit is crossed.   Proof of work can do so: from the moment an asset would have a market value of $20, and it only costs you $10 of work to make one, the market price will of course not be tenable: what fool would pay $20 for an old coin, if he can make a fungible, new one for only $10 himself !  But also, in as much as its market value is only $0.1, NOBODY is going to make a new coin.  So we have a collectible that you can acquire for $0.1 in the market, and of which you know that nobody will make any until it reaches $10.  That sounds like a good thing to do: your rational expectations will be that one day, this will be $10, so you can make a gain of a hundredfold, and you DON'T HAVE TO FEAR running out of greater fools !

Strangely enough, putting an upper cap on price is what will change your rational expectations of the asset.  In as much as buying bitcoin at $0.1 was a funny thing to do, because there wasn't any rational expectation of ANY value, and you might have expected that everyone recognized immediately a pyramid game, if you know that the value will be capped at $10, that's a clear expectation, so you hoard all coins that exist (not many !).  That hoarding pushes the price quickly up to $10, and then, people start making coins.

As long as the market is expanding, and there is a higher demand for coins, the coin cannot go above $10.  If, during a long time, there has been a rational expectation of the coin being worth $10, confirmed in the market, there will be a firm belief that that is its value.

If on top of that, we make it slightly deflationary, we get an incentive for people to have it acquire value, in the same way that bitcoin acquired value: a SLIGHT expectation of benefit, without the greater fool divergence.  

However, this slight expectation of benefit doesn't boost value over the current PoW cost.  Indeed, if you expect a coin to be worth, say, $20 in a few years, you might be willing to spend, say $15 right now.  But you won't be buying it in the market for $15, because you can make it yourself for $10 !  So the market price will be pushed up to $10 because you find that interesting, but will not cross it.  If, in a few years time, as expected, it now costs $20 to make one, knowing that in again a few years time it will be worth $40, the market price will be pushed against $20.   And you can use it as money, because RIGHT NOW, that market price will not change.  So if you want to pay something worth $200, you can just as well use your coins as anything else.  The slight deflation would induce you to convert more and more of your fiat in this currency, because it is a great savings account, without turning it into a greater fool game.

So, if you can regulate the production such that it has a "constant price offer" (a 100% elastic offer), then you regulate price as long as there is any extra demand over the 'going round offer'.  You may expect that there will be this extra demand during the adoption phase, that's evident.  You may also expect that there is an extra demand because of the slightly deflationary proposition.  If, at a certain point, the market doesn't need more coins, of course, the asset will be freely evolving, it will be a collectible as long as it doesn't fall into a deflationary spiral (a speculative bubble).  But it won't, because everybody knows it is capped in value.  The very long sustained price in the market will induce firm belief in its value steadiness, and we have near-ideal money as Nash described it, without going through dangerous boom-bust greater/lesser fool games.

Bitcoin has missed this opportunity.