Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker

However, if price rises in other exchanges, that can only be because of bitcoin demand exceeding supply. You cannot twist it anywhere.

I would therefore closely follow the pricing in Bitstamp and others, and that has been on a rise lately. It is tempting to think that the going price is $120 (Gox), but I would more likely put it at $103. If I were to buy, I would not try to send money at Gox to buy at 20% premium, I would use Bitstamp.

Bitstamp has 5k less coins in their Ask compared to 1-2 weeks ago. Most likely, they have all been move to Gox to sell.

I believe the buying pressure in Bitstamp has just consumed the coins.

Gox situation is special. I don't believe that their bid side comes from true demand, because it is so much easier to use other exchanges for buying, and their price is also much lower. To me it seems that most of Gox bids are money trying to escape Gox in the form of bitcoins.

This money is orginally as Gox-USD, and most of the owners want it converted back to USD after escaping from Gox. It does not change the total bitcoin supply-demand, because it is both originally and eventually USD. Bitcoin is therefore used only as a value transmit mechanism for Gox-USD.

So it's a run on Gox then ...

A 20%+ risk premium over the other main USD exchanges would certainly point in that direction.

MtGox 24h Volume: 46280 BTC
Bitstamp 24h Volume: 11791 BTC

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Makes no sense, you don't cash out of Mt. Gox by buying bitcoin rather than by waiting a month for a USD wire.
Do the math, if you're a whale with that much buying power you have let's say at least 100k USD on gox.
So if you'd like to "cash out", you'd have to buy @ ~$115 (let's make it easy and ignore the slope). So you get 100.000/115 = 869.57 - 2.61 (0.3% Fee) = 866.95 BTC.
Now you transfer them to an other exchange (Bitstamp) to cash out to USD (again we ignore the slope which is even higher @ bitstamp), so:
866.95 * 99.98 = 86677.66 - 260.033 (0.3% Fee) = $86417.63
So you just lost $13582.37 because you didn't want to wait a month.
/dit: Looking on the volumes of the recent rally and the fact that there was a single 1500 BTC buy order taking down the $115 wall, I think it's safe to take those numbers * 10.