Good trading is educated guessing, meaning you've educated yourself about certain facets of market behavior and are prepared to act when the conditions are met.

Most people have about the same chance of winning at trading as they do at winning the lotto. The reason why is very simple in that they do not know what they are doing and take heed of endless rubbish as if they were the only real truths. In doing so they fail to see the real truth and thus end up playing the lotto instead of playing to win.