Trading can be view as educated guessing especially when you trade just with one asset(such as Bitcoin). You solely depend on the estimation of how the currency is gonna evolve. It is not just a means of guessing rather it is also a matter of taking a risk. A risk that you take it can be for your own credit or to the others. But while your taking that risk you should have that think of all the possible outcome that can be happened, but you would take that risk in favor to your side.