One data point - the overall market cap of crypto is the same as it was on Dec 6th and that is 10x larger than it was the previous 12 months.

There is a lot of headline risk - a lot of bad news coming out of China, banks banning credit card purchases (which was inevitable) - and remember, a bunch of people made a bunch of money in the last three months.

There is not a lot of transparency in these markets, so every reasonable person should have a piece of paranoia in their mind wondering if there is a tremendous pump and dump coordinated by the biggest holders. Much crazier things have happened.

Valuation is key and hard to determine. Why is BTC worth 5k and not 8k? Why should be worth 20k ? No one really knows those answers because they aren't linked to fundamental use cases. If you are buying coins on thinking they are the future of something, that is great and I encourage you - but remember that you could be buying them for way more than they will be worth one day. They might not disappear but if you are in it to make money in six months, there is danger there for you.

Much of what I wrote can be applied to any time period. Allocate appropriately.