I have the actual odds in my post
He is not interested in actual odds. He is only interested in averages and times. That's why it is impossible to argue with him.
All miners produce diff 1 shares at the same speed relative to hashrate (let's ignore the variance there). They do this no matter what share difficulty is wanted by the pool. Every one of those shares has 1/pool_diff chance of being accepted by the pool. Saying "it would've taken 31 seconds to finally get that share, but because the block took only 30 seconds I never had a chance" is just blatantly wrong.
That doesn't make any sense. The whole point of a 512 diff rate is you send data to the server 1/512th of the time vs 1 diff. If they never get sent, how are they going to be accepted.
This make me think that you don't actually know what a nonce is or how
difficulty mining works.
There you go again. Instead of explaining why you think I was wrong, you just reuse someone elses ad hominem attack. Not even your own! I thought you told me you were done being an ass.
Anyway, I'm done. I know I am not the only one who is seeing this. I don't understand why, but this seems to be a divisive topic. I have laid it out in every way I know how, you guys are either going to understand what I'm saying or not.
The only reason I care so much is because I love the idea of this pool, I love 95% of what H20 has done, and I want it to succeed. I was not the first one to point out that the diff might be affecting things. This didn't come in as a theoretical idea, people were watching their miners when we were mining fast coins and seeing this effect played out.