Its not gamblers fallacy to predict the expected outcome of a series of events given a probability.
Like saying, given a set of 5 coin clips, we predict 3.125% of the time it will be all heads.
Gamblers fallacy would be:
I just had 4 heads, I am due for tails now!
or
I just had 4 heads, I am on a steak and will get heads
Calling probability gamblers fallacy is a complete reversal of the situation, the casino relies on probability to even out variance and ensure their profit over time.
When we predict the average time to find block, we are like the casino predicting the number of times the dealer wins on a game OVER TIME.
In other words, it is not gamblers fallacy to say given a hashrate of x, and a difficulty of y, we RELIABLY EXPECT it to take Z seconds to find a share.
Correct. I'm not speaking of probability of the expected outcome of a series of events that have not happened yet. I'm directing that link to anyone that thinks that they calculated part of a share and lost something when we move to a new block.