Dead on.

The only way an alt-currency survives is if it has some new feature that is impossible to add to Bitcoin.  That only happens in very rare instances, or in situations where Bitcoin is so large and stable that it isn't worth breaking.  There are also some situations possible where Bitcoin is superior for 95% of use cases, but inferior in 5%, and the niche currency will be able to hold that 5%.  The clones are nothing more than jealous haters who wish they were around during the Bitcoin boom.

Just looked back and noticed the author.  He is a bright guy.  I was actually talking about another article he wrote at a meetup, and he interrupted me to tell me he wrote it.  Small world.