A fall below $ 7,950 on the bitfinex will make it clear that the markup is not valid, because wave 2 can not fall below wave 1. This will be very bad.
As a newbie, I don't really know what it's cause. But for me, the fluctuation of bitcoin is base on the demand of it. The many the investor, the higher the demand and if many investors having cash outs or withdrawals, the demand of it decreases and if that's happen, the bitcoin markets value decrease and at the same time, if the markets value getting too low, many investors think again to invest and that will also cause of raising it's value.