Note that manufacturers likely have to book a certain amount of chips (I heard sets of 25 wafers) at the factory. So the number of chips actually hashing in the future might be larger than the number of orders that the manufacturer actually manages to land. (Also, no KNC??)
Difficulty will overshoot by a lot into deeply unprofitable territory before the flow of chips reduces.
Right. Don't forget the private miners: ASICMINER, bitfury (
http://ghash.io already at 80+TH/s
right now) and undisclosed private ASICs.
Costs for private mining could be well under $1/GH.