Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

Last time it breached the 200EMA within 9 weeks of ATH was in 2011 and it wasn't as deep.

TERA, you mean a long-term bear market is coming? If so, what is your bottom target: 3.5-4 or closer to the previous ATH, 1.5-2k?

I still believe in at least 13-16k bounce short term, price is recovering nicely so far, albeit slowly. I read the recent price action as an accumulation by big players.

Ive been saying for months there would be a bounce from 5.5K to the low teens before proceeding with the bear market. The next bottom after that would be 3K. However, it could take a really long time and there would be other bounces off 5.5K first.

Ya sure I remember at 20K this board had said bitcoin had matured yada yada and the 'big players were accumulating and manipulating it down to 16K'. As if the world's brightest investors hadnt bought at 1K and below and were suddenly interested at buying at a 1600% premium on top of a bubble at ATH. lol. Dont buy all the bull

To gauge the bottom I use the miners profitability vs return on new hardware. Additionally miners are hardcore into bitcoin and crypto and they are first to reinvest in bitcoin by buying up asic hardware. If it proves profitable to buy btc vs buying hardware they will.

Simply see the cost return comparison.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11QS1BBV11KNGTF8N_-fdfmjTZ3WzPQFbLfVrl5n6R8s/edit#gid=1194614223

Here is an example that also includes the last two years of network difficulty as an average.

Here is the Antminer S9 13.5TH Return at 9,500.00 USD to BTC

https://i.imgur.com/bDhEa5r.png

Here is the Antminer S9 13.5TH Return at 15,000.00 USD to BTC

https://i.imgur.com/J41nWjy.png

Here is the Avalon 821 11TH if the price was at 15,000.00.

https://i.imgur.com/L7MGVjV.png

UPDATE: Note that every difficulty update I use the update this charting details for my own use. I suggest you go ahead and make your own or ask a trusted friend that mines to review it for yourself. Always good to get a 2nd or 3rd opinion.

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