I think his main critique is mainly pointed towards the recent decrease in share price. I don't think the decrease in share price is a failure of the pricing mechanism. It's rather the outcome of a liquidity crunch (more investment opportunities than capital, causing chronic undervaluation), combined with the deployment cycle of ASICMINER miner and their dividend policy.
I expect the share price to stabilize above 2 BTC/share. If it does not, it provides an incentive for previous owners to move back into the market.
I know you are an early investor and I presume a board member, so you have access to lots of information that most people don't have. But that is part of the problem with valuing AM as a run-of-the-mill investor. The market occasionally get short updates from Friedcat that give a general idea of where the company is going, without too many specifics.
Last week was a case in point. The dividend was low, so everyone dumped their shares in a panic. Then we were told some
BTC was held back for gen 2 chips. What we *don't* know is:
- how long has Friedcat been holding back dividends
- how much has he held back
- how much more does he need to pay for the next gen
- how much stock is still on hand
etc etc
When the market operates in a near-vacuum of information, the only things we can go on are:
- the dividend
- the estimates of hashrate
- estimates of hardware sales
- any news about new competitors
which is why the share price bobs around like a cork in the ocean, as I'm sure it will continue to do until something changes. I think that's now a bigger factor than the lack of capital compared to investment opportunities.