Surely not going bearish on XMR?
No, I am just holding and waiting while busy elsewhere. Just bearish on my ability to analyze the current crypto environment without committing to more work that I can spare.
It's a weak intuition, but I am expecting a new ATH before autumn, and passing 1k usd for good in 2019. I think we are trading near the fundamentals on DNM use right now. I suspect that difficulty will continue to increase, which constrains the lowest marginal clearing price of new supply. I think XMR will intermittently, with gradually increasing frequency, start to trade more like a monetary commodity and less like a technology speculation.
Sure we can take a spike down on dishoarding by a large speculator, but given the rising demand for transactions and the ever tightening supply, it seems foolish not to participate until at least one of those trends has reversed. Supply growth is not going to diminish any time soon, and DNMs seem to be growing roughly according to Moore's Law, so it is quite hard to find an asset with a comparable risk/reward value.
Isn't is more healthy to just let that second kind of fork happen if it's going to happen but continue to push development forward on both forks rather than everyone just sitting around with their thumbs up their butts not improving the network because trying to do so "would cause a fork"?
I think so. I also think that forks in Bitcoin have made ownership of Bitcoin more appealing: It works out much like a stock split or a special dividend. So, while I would prefer that it should not happen because I don't really want the volatility it implies, or the loss of valued community members - especially that! - still I expect to trend chuffed, in the breach.