Calculations to support these probabilities? They do not seem accurate to me.
That is the great thing about numbers, they don't need to "seem" to be accurate. They either are or they are not. You can compute them yourself and know definitively if they are or are not.
It's just that you write that as if you know what you talking about, but you clearly do not.
So you already know how to calculate and validate or invalidate it.
Fair, next time I will avoid being polite and state it more frankly. You do not know what you are posting about, your numbers are wrong, and you are misleading posters that don't know probability and statistics well.
The calculations depend greatly on assumptoins, parameters, length of time to view, etc. That is why I wanted you to post your calculations, so as a community we could work through them and arrive at a reasonable result.