It's a non-homogenous poisson process wrt time. If the hashrate is kept stable, then it's a homogeneous poisson process with respect to time.
LOL no shit you idiot. If it we knew that the hash rate was constant, this entire discussion would be irrelevant. We would just be able to more accurately predict the hash rate as we collected more data. Nonstationary data would not be an issue.
I didn't realise you understood that - since if you did you could have just posted that you understood the difference (which you didn't, not by name anyhow) and also calculated probabilities for blocks solves in
n minutes for a given day and time yourself. Since you didn't I thought perhaps you didn't know about or understand the difference. I was not trying to imply I was an idiot.
So if you understand non-homogenous Poisson processes, then you understand it's possible to estimate the intensity function and cumulative intensity function yourself - then you can easily calculate the probability of
n blocks in a given time period and set this discussion to bed.
When you post the results I'll be quite interested to see how different the probabilities actually are.