Simple answer: we don't know because AM's hash rate does not conform to any common distributions. Also I am quite comfortable admitting that it is a difficult problem, and other posters on this board could probably make better calculations than me. IMHO Admitting your own limitations is perfectly OK...
I also stated I think Flotes' calculations are reasonable but a bit low. Please read the coin analogy to understand my principle issue with the DnT's conclusions.