EDIT: Never said I knew how to calculate, just that DnT's calcs were clearly wrong.
OK, well you've managed to confuse me again. When you wrote:
Calculations to support these probabilities? They do not seem accurate to me.
I thought you'd calculated your own results and had already compared them to D&Ts - otherwise how would you know if they looked accurate or not?
It's called a back of the envelope calculation and common sense.