I kind of feel like all this mining hardware is going to pay off, in USD, not so much in btc. Not even close in terms of bitcoins, but it will be huge to the exchange rate.
That makes no sense. If it doesn't pay off in bitcoins, then you're better off buying bitcoins instead of a miner.
Exactly. I think all the preordered mining equipment is going to be used for mining. nobody will ever make back the same amount of bitcoins as they paid, but people won't sell their bitcoins for less than it cost them to mine them.
Double the price of bitcoins though, and you doubled the profitability of mining. A miner that cost 70btc @ $100/btc will only cost 35btc @ $200/btc, meaning you only have to mine half as much to break even.
I think there are going to be a few doublings over the next few months.