Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It
Wow, 4 people that think they know statistics because they know what a distribution is and can google simple statistics concepts. But really you arent thinking critically enough.
1. Why do you guys think that AMs rate of finding blocks is poission distributed? It is definitely not a poisson process, but I admit that that fact does not preclude its results from being poission distributed. That being said, due to the variance in AM's hash rate that friedcat has admitted, we know that it is not poisson distributed.
2. Many of you are missing a crucial point. The difference between the expected value for a GIVEN 6 hour period is a VERY DIFFERENT question from the probability that 0 blocks will be found in ANY ONE 6 hour period. Allow me to illustrate with an example, and I think even you condescending / smug posters will understand. The probability of flipping a coin 3 times and getting heads each time is VERY DIFFERENT from flipping a coin 50 times a getting a string of 3 heads in a row. I really hope you guys see why... Now, I know thinking is difficult but please try. Now think for an example how this concept applies to this situation. Do you see now?
You guys are really my major problem with the bitcoin community in general. At first it seems like a community full of really intelligent people. But the more time you spend, you realize its actually full of condescending people that are pseudo-intellectuals.
You guys think that because you have tons of posts that you are intelligent. But really that is not the case at all. Just because you took intro to stats you think that you know probabilities well, but you guys are misapplying the concepts. On top of that you act like egotistical dbags to people that are trying to help you see the error in your ways. Really concerns me about this community, and bitcoins' longevity... Especially you members with a ton of posts and activity. People assume that you guys are intelligent and know things--couldn't you at least take a little bit of responsibility?
Sorry for ranting, but it really is saddening
1. Why do you guys think that AMs rate of finding blocks is poission distributed? It is definitely not a poisson process, but I admit that that fact does not preclude its results from being poission distributed. That being said, due to the variance in AM's hash rate that friedcat has admitted, we know that it is not poisson distributed.
2. Many of you are missing a crucial point. The difference between the expected value for a GIVEN 6 hour period is a VERY DIFFERENT question from the probability that 0 blocks will be found in ANY ONE 6 hour period. Allow me to illustrate with an example, and I think even you condescending / smug posters will understand. The probability of flipping a coin 3 times and getting heads each time is VERY DIFFERENT from flipping a coin 50 times a getting a string of 3 heads in a row. I really hope you guys see why... Now, I know thinking is difficult but please try. Now think for an example how this concept applies to this situation. Do you see now?
You guys are really my major problem with the bitcoin community in general. At first it seems like a community full of really intelligent people. But the more time you spend, you realize its actually full of condescending people that are pseudo-intellectuals.
You guys think that because you have tons of posts that you are intelligent. But really that is not the case at all. Just because you took intro to stats you think that you know probabilities well, but you guys are misapplying the concepts. On top of that you act like egotistical dbags to people that are trying to help you see the error in your ways. Really concerns me about this community, and bitcoins' longevity... Especially you members with a ton of posts and activity. People assume that you guys are intelligent and know things--couldn't you at least take a little bit of responsibility?
Sorry for ranting, but it really is saddening
I think that the logic is this. If you assume that AM and the total network both run at a constant hash rate and things are random then the number of blocks found by AM has Poisson distribution. Then if AM finds on average B blocks in time T then the probability of finding zero blocks in any time interval T is exp(-B). If for time T no block is found and exp(-B) is a very small number then it is very unlikely that AM is running at the expected constant hash rate that was used for the calculation and one starts to worry.
Edit: I just saw that you already answered this.