I think patience is the biggest obstacle that AM investors need to overcome. People act like putting together a 50 THs farm is nothing more than pre-ordering 100 baby-jets.
well, we had that done some time ago. It seems like getting a 50 TH/s farm up isn't too much of an issue for FC and team, but keeping it at 50TH/s and expanding beyond that is a significant hurdle.
FC has been planing expansion from the beginning and has been doing great.
up until about a month or so ago, and expansion has completely stagnated.
The bears have been loud recently and have used this two weeks of lower hash-rate to get the lowest share price, but I don't think it will last long.
based on what? I don't see any signs of the mining operation improving, and hardware delivery has been stalled waiting on the new blades.
Has anyone considered what 60 TH/s of 130nm tech uses in power? If FC knows superior tech is coming and they are close to their limit on power why lease an entire second building to build out massively using 130nm tech which will be obsolete soon. Just maintain the network, sell off the excess and prepare to move to a more efficient processing node.
65 TH/s @ 8.5 J/GH is ~ 550KW or >2200 Amps @ 240V. The existing hashrate provides insight into the fact that AM has facilities which can handle 550KW of direct power and more importantly the ability to remove 550KW of heat (which likely means up to another >200KW of AC). Say AM's 2nd gen chips are ~0.6 J/GH at the wall. The same amount of facilities could handle > 900 TH/s of capacity and that is just an estimate based on know hashrate. I doubt they are running to the last milliamp so the goal of 1 PH/s makes sense.
However to expand significantly before the next gen chips arrive may require additional facilities. Have you looked at the selling prices AM gets for their gear. I mean by my math it is pretty close to the NPV of the lifetime revenue stream based on difficulty growth. AM isn't leaving that much on the table by selling the hardware rather than self mining. If they are near capacity (for 130nm) why spend money on more facilities you don't need to get to 1 PH/s and mine when you can get almost the same net revenue by selling the gear to someone else?
Interesting hypothesis, this sounds plausible indeed. But gen2 is not expected before November, that would imply we will stay at 60TH/s until November/December, and hardware sells will need to be enormous to compensate the lack of mining dividends. 60TH/s in 2 months will be nothing, maybe 2%.