In my other thread someone suggested that since mining is a way many people first get into Bitcoin that an increase in the price of mining each coin could increase Bitcoin market price. I think its definitely a plausible theory. The steady flow of new investors who would normally buy equipment are instead going to buy Bitcoins directly as long as the market price is less than the price per Bitcoin from hardware manufacturers. The real question is whether most miners can afford to hold out for these high break even prices or whether they will sell early (or potentially hold for a long time to double their profits?). The price per BTC represents what price point a miner would have to sell at to make his money back (no profit).
So how much does it cost to mine one Bitcoin? Assuming a 76% increase in difficulty per month, .15$/kWh, and a 2% pool fee:
(I used mining.thegenesisblock.com for these estimates)
BFL Single SC
Power cost over 7 months: ~$280
Initial cost = ~$1300
Total cost over 7 months: ~$1580
For people who get their Single SC 60 GH/s tomorrow: They will mine about 18 coins over the next 7 months. Cost: ~$88 per Bitcoin.
For people who get their Single SC 60 GH/s at the beginning of October: They will mine about 10 Bitcoins over the next 7 months. Cost: ~$158 per Bitcoin.
For people who get their Single SC at the beginning of November: 5.6 Bitcoins mined over 7 months. Cost: ~$282 per Bitcoin.
Bitfury - 400GH/s
Power cost over 7 months = ~$280
Initial cost = ~$8000
Total cost over 7 months = ~$8,280
Delivery day October 1: 66 Bitcoins mined over next 7 months. Cost: ~$126 per Bitcoin.
Delivery day Nov 1 = 37.5 coins generated over 7 months. Cost: ~$220 per Bitcoin
KnCminer - 400GH/s Jupiter
Power cost over 7 months = ~$490
Initial cost = ~$7000
Total cost over 7 months = ~$7490
Delivery October 1: 66 coins mined over 7 months. Cost: ~$114 per Bitcoin
Delivery Nov 1: 37.5 coins mined over 7 months. Cost: ~$200 per Bitcoin
HashFast - BabyJet
Power cost over 7 months: ~$259
Initial cost = ~$5600
Total cost over 7 months = ~$5859
Delivery Nov 1: 37.5 coins mined. Cost: ~$156.24 per Bitcoin
Delivery Dec 1: 21.3 coins mined over 7 months. Cost: ~$275 per Bitcoin