Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
Let's assume (for the third or fourth time, I know) that this is the last time we see quad-digits. Dangerous, I know, but I get impatient.
Since my last update, this means Da Bears only managed to erode into a single doubling floor, extending the $5k to $10k floor by 21 more days, for a total of 121 days since we last saw $5k.
For reference, the Mt Gox correction eroded three presumed doubling floors ($640, $320, $160), taking over three years to reestablish these support levels.
Projecting from trend, I'm thinking another 90 days until we establish $20k as a new floor, maybe around mid-May.
$10k marks the 12th Bitcoin doubling floor since $2.50 in 2012.
The shortest doubling floor was 39 days from $20 to $40.
The longest doubling floor was 546 days from $80 to $160 post-Mt Gox.
As a HODLer, I prefer charting floors vs all-time highs. ATHs are too transient and susceptible to FUD, making them more suitable for
Go Bitcoin Go!
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2834180.msg29061043
this chart is great. it shows lots of things but mainly the benefits of not selling and even if you buy at a 'worst possible time" it all comes right
eg if you only got into bitcoin at the height of the goxxing and spent $5,000 at a $1000 price it would have given you 5 bitcoins. It would take about 3.5 years for the price to recover to that point and another 0.5 years for it to be at $10,000.
ie your $5000 has in 4 years become $50,000 or the equivalent of an 80% annual compounding interest rate if the money was in the bank and during that period the banks would have only given you say a 3% compounding rate. No wonder they are scared.
It makes it a "no brainer" that for all - big and small- that you have at least some of your savings in bitcoin.
Is my arithmetic reasonably accurate?