Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: September and October will be eventful.
by
geofflosophy
on 02/09/2013, 06:44:46 UTC
We are on the verge of panic buying and seller strikes. Once price breaks 170$, which could be next week, the bulls will go berserk and all those who hoped to buy once it crashes will surrender and buy back at loss.

I know lots of long time Bitcoin bulls who are patiently waiting for a crash with loads of fiat. I know too many of those temporarily bearish bulls. I do not think that their strategy will be profitable. Too many people are waiting with fiat to pick up cheap coins. It will not happen this time. They will have to buy back at a higher price.

Look at the daily chart right now. Only during 11 days ever the price was higher than it is now.  Only during 5 days the price was above 141$ for most of the day and the the volume during those days was rather mediocre.  On the other hand, days that marked bottom prices had huge volume. Everyone, but those who sold coins any day other than those 11, above 141$, with intention to buy back (and still has not bought), is being hurt now. Emotions are starting to boil. It is kind of prisoner dilemma for them.

Expect a bunch of elephants to try to squeeze into Bitcoin room via a tiny door of roughly 50-100kBTC available on sale at a price below of the all time high 266$. Buy popcorn. September and October will be eventful.

I totally agree with the OP's original point. Everyone expects volatility in BTC, and part of that means that the price should drop from time to time, but everyone is also long term bullish. I just don't think that the supply side will be robust enough to support a price decline; i.e. if the price drops, people are willing to just wait it out. This is why the price will not drop below $100 again