Even if I'm 60% for getting chips and 40% for refunds, there are plenty of things that you can't foresee in this equation. I've calculated the growth of difficulty by 20% and this successfully worked till about 50 millions, when was the time we were supposed to receive our chips. Now we are witnessing jumps by 50% and the more the asic competition develops their products the higher this step will be. Now imagine 50% jump at a difficulty of 200 mils, what I think it will be by the time we receive this chips - again - if Yifu manages to send out as he promised. If he fails, as all the evidence so far are pointing to this direction, and we manage to get our chips in the middle or end of October it will be best just to throw the chips away.
I wouldn't bet my head over 3 months ROI or 6 months ROI or whatever, if those chips are not mining in the last days of September. Even then it might be late.
Bottom line is this chip pre-order was a big risk in the begging. Now the risk increased dramatically.
I haven't decided what to do yet myself. The only solution to this is a simple vote on the matter. Majority wins.
I am with marto on this one:
I want my chips sent to my assembler.
I do not want a refund.
can you explain why?
do you have a method and you will see ROI ?
do you know something that we do not know?
- or is more like curiosity... to see the PCB populated and up and running knowing that you will NEVER get your invested money back... and talking about profit is useless
Yep
1. I don't need them to ROI, i have payed with bitcoins mined from my farm witch have ROI-d itself long time ago. So this is reinvestemnt for me.
2. I don't pay for electricity
3. They will ROI. It will take 4 months for that according to my calculations.
I agree with Skrubalov. For those who don't know or don't care about the details, the bitcoin price is always following the difficulty. Furthermore, the introduction of new technology always boosts the prices higher (see the timeframe when the first ASICs came into game by Avalon). That said, i can "almost" promise you that the bitcoin price will not stay at $140 - $150, it will climb even higher. So when you draw the line after mining for one month, you will get almost the same amount of money. Right now, with the difficulty of 65 million, the price of the BTC counterbalances marvelously the difficulty, making the ROI exactly 3 months for one full klondike miner together with chips! Not a single day more than i have calculated back in May while starting the Group-Buy.
So my advice is DON'T PANIC! Never panic, because it doesn't solve anything. Everything is going to be fine and i promise i'll do my best to make it be ok for you guys.