Looks good. Now we need someone to write one that does do a conservative estimate of additional difficulty increases. Difficulty increases aren't completely predictable, but writing an estimator that uses the exponential curve that best fits previous increases would be a good start.
I would gladly write that in if somebody would help me with the mathematical calculations to do this.
Anybody have an idea on how to do this?
Take a look at this.
https://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=13339.msg183351#msg183351The thing is, it is not like figuring out an exact Difficulty in the future, but a probability distribution. This is what you need to determine risk vs. reward for an investment. Figure out what your risk tolerance is and then decide how much you are willing to risk.
It
is not OK to do this: "Price and Difficulty will be X two months from now so I can calculate my return from that."
But it
is OK to do this: "There is a 50% probability that Price and Difficulty will be above/below level X two months from now. That is/is not an acceptable risk to me."
The numbers you linked to look interesting, but could you explain the calculations and how you got the numbers?